




The trajectory of US consumer
demand proved unsustainable, and what we now know is a tenuous financial
structure has buckled. With each new piece of economic data, with every trading
day, the implications of that reality become more obvious and more painful.
Leaders of the G-20 got together last weekend to talk it out, issuing a
seven-page compendium of declarations, commitments, agreements, principles and
promises that boils down to this: See you after Jan. 20.
World leaders agreed to work
together to plug the gaps and weaknesses in current financial regulatory
systems that precipitated the collapse. And though the Nov. 15 G-20 communique
was as opaque on the topic as the web of interconnected obligations at the
middle of the financial crisis, subsequent public statements and follow-up
actions by participating leaders leave little doubt that governments will spend
to stimulate their respective domestic economies.
Specific measures are still
to be determined. But Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, for example, took
to a set of microphones at his nation’s Washington, DC embassy Saturday
afternoon to announce he’s prepared for a budget deficit if that’s what it
takes to mitigate the effects of the slowdown. Canada has been in surplus for a
decade, so this is no trivial matter.
The Prime Minister benefits
from certain political realities that make it easier for him to pivot so
abruptly from long-held views on fiscal responsibility--first of all, North
Americans have had their fill of campaigns and elections.
And a fast, firm response
could also prove good tactics for the notoriously shrewd Mr. Harper. The
willingness to entertain an imbalance is a good measure of the gravity he assigns
to the problem, and his country is, by way of its prudence, on good footing to
make such commitments. He’s not necessarily “buying” votes. And if indeed
federal intervention it is, should it prove temporary, targeted and effective,
Harper might finally earn his cherished majority government.
Wednesday’s Throne Speech
kicking off Canada’s
40th Parliament included a pledge to aid the auto sector, but that still
depends on consultations with US policymakers about a possible bailout package.
The speech also included a pledge that the government will “provide further
support” for the Canadian manufacturing sector, particularly the auto and
aerospace industries.
Harper used the occasion to
issue a head’s up to Canadians, saying the government is likely to go into
deficit early next year. A “strong fiscal foundation is not an end in itself,”
read the speech, “but is the bedrock on which a resilient economy is built.”
Finance Minister Jim Flaherty
backed away from his comments last weekend indicating a package would be
cobbled together in time for inclusion in a statement on the economy he’ll
deliver next week; in fact, rather than consolidate spending programs in a
mini-budget before the end of the year, stimulus or industrial-aid measures
will be included in the formal budget early next year.
Among other specifics, Harper
committed to creating a common national securities regulator, offering
incentives to business to make capital investments and making it easier to
develop a northern natural gas pipeline, a reference to the long-delayed,
CAD16.2 billion Mackenzie gas pipeline.
Harper also said that by
2020, 90 percent of all electricity generated should be from clean or renewable
sources. Nuclear power will be a critical element in meeting that target. Harper’s
recent talks with provincial and territorial leaders likely included the need
for infrastructure spending and the possible timing of various projects.
Assistance for the Big Three
automakers from Canada
depends largely on what Washington
ultimately decides to do. The debate in DC seemed to break down Wednesday, but reports
late Wednesday night suggested China’s Shanghai
Automotive Industry Corp (SAIC) and Dongfeng
“have plans” to buy GM and/or Chrysler assets. That may explain in
part the late Thursday talk of a compromise that will allow the Big Three to
tap into USD25 billion in loans originally set
aside for the automakers to retool their
factories.
The story in the link above
quotes a China-based 21st Central
Business Herald report that cites a “senior official of China’s Ministry of
Industry and Information Technology--the state regulator of China’s auto industry--who
dropped the hint that ‘the auto manufacturing giants in China, such as Shanghai
Automotive Industry Corporation (SAIC) and Dongfeng Motor Corporation, have the
capability and intention to buy some assets of the two crisis-plagued American
automakers.’” That’ll give them the chance to sell China-built cars with
globally marketable brand names--without the labor/legacy costs plaguing GM,
Chrysler and Ford.
Harper promised during his election
campaign to put another CAD200 million into Canada’s CAD250 million Auto
Innovation Fund. President-elect Obama is in favor of rescuing the auto
industry and its 3 million jobs. That’s a lot of jobs and a lot of consumption vanished,
and that’s another log on the deflationary fire.
As we’ve noted in other
contexts, these are no ordinary times. It’s useful, for example, to distinguish
a prudent distribution cut from a desperate stab at hoarding cash. As well,
spending into the red to stimulate aggregate demand is distinct from building
in structural deficits. The global financial crisis has made balance sheet
strength fashionable again when it comes to evaluating companies. It’s what
will allow those that have it to survive.
Countries that entered this extraordinary period with sound finances are similarly positioned to weather it better and emerge from it stronger relative to not-so-prudent nations.
Roger S. Conrad is
editor of Utility Forecaster, the nation’s
leading advisory on essential services stocks, bonds and preferred stocks. His
proprietary safety rating system evaluates the prospects of every significant
electric, natural gas, telecommunications and water company, including
utility-based mutual funds and foreign utilities. Roger’s penchant for detailed
research and his studied insights into utilities markets have garnered him a
wide audience of subscribers—not to mention a bevy of industry awards for his
perceptive reporting, commentary and investment advice.
He brings the same
enthusiasm and intelligence to Roger Conrad’s Canadian Edge,
an Internet-based publication devoted to uncovering lucrative investment
opportunities in Canadian royalty trusts. Roger’s exhaustive coverage of how
recent changes to Canada’s tax laws will affect these companies has earned him
a reputation as one of the leading authorities on Canadian trusts. Subscribers
and the national media often contact him for information on the latest economic
developments and investment opportunities north of the border.
Roger is also
associate editor of Personal Finance and co-editor of Vital Resource
Investor, a subscription-based service that seeks opportunities for equity
investors in the natural resource markets across the world.
He holds a bachelor’s
degree from Emory University and a master’s degree in international management
from the American Graduate School of International Management (Thunderbird). In
addition, he is the author of Power Hungry: Strategic Investing in
Telecommunications, Utilities and Other Essential Services and coauthor of The
Agile Investor and Market Timing for the Nineties with Stephen Leeb.
He is also an avid outdoorsman and baseball fan.
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