“According to the Chinese Zodiac, 2008 is a year of danger. And although superstition isn’t good company for an investor, last year was quite rewarding, just as the Chinese Zodiac forecast.

Nevertheless, caution is warranted. The subprime crisis has turned into an assault on the world’s credit structure, but the synchronized efforts of central banks will keep the system alive. The markets aren’t powerful enough or willing to fight the central banks of the world, especially when they act in concert.

This doesn’t mean the global economy won’t slow or the US will avoid a recession of some sort. All it means is the world’s financial system won’t collapse.

For The Silk [Road Investor] universe, however, things are a bit more complicated. Our markets finished their fifth year of absolute performance dominance versus the rest of the world. For that reason, this year may require a little more agility than 2007.”

The foregoing commentary is from January (see my premium service, The silk road investor, for more), and the scenario described is playing out as expected. For this reason, the newly converted bears who exclaim that the world’s economy and markets are going to hell make no impression on me.



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It’s well known that the world’s financial system won’t collapse, although a lot of profound changes will take place as structured finance disappears. It’s also clear that the checks and balances of the US-centric financial system didn’t work, at least not as well as the majority had hoped.

The next surprise will come from the fact that the major emerging market economies will be able to weather the storm much better than before, while also lending a hand to the ailing financial institutions of the developed world.

I expect Japan to continue to outperform the majority of developed markets because the negatives are already priced in. Add the great potential for an economy that’s trying to break out of a chronic deflationary disaster and you have a strong, short-term and long-term bet. I still prefer financials and insurance companies in Japan.

Expect the major emerging markets (i.e., China, Russia, India, the Gulf States and Brazil) to experience slower growth but not recession this year and to bounce back stronger when economic conditions improve.

For Asia in particular, which is the engine driving the strong global economic growth we’ve enjoyed over the last two years, the picture remains bright.

Despite the short-term challenges, Asian economies face--particularly high inflation--they’ve already entered the early stages of a cycle of capital investment, infrastructure spending and domestic consumption.

The latter remains the main reason for investing in the region because the current economic turmoil drives the point home. These economies can’t move decisively forward through the vendor financing approach in which companies--or countries--lend money to their own clients in order to buy their products, as the dot-com companies did in the 1990s.  

For now, pessimism reigns, and I expect volatility to continue to play a great role this year. Asia is reaching bargain prices, especially for investors who are willing to see beyond the next two or three quarters. The opportunity to purchase strong assets at a discount presents itself when circumstances are bleak, especially when growth prospects are robust, as is the case in Asia.



Set Yourself Up Now To Multiply Your Income in 2009 With More Gains and Less Risk


Meet with four of KCI’s top editors and hear their post election predictions and how you can bulletproof your portfolio…

You’ll hear about the choicest picks in the on-fire energy sector, plus the latest nanotechnology breakthroughs. You’ll also hear why canadian trusts are giving investors gains of 40% this year and the exciting prospects for 2009, plus how you can multiply your money 5-10 times with income investing and finally….a complete wrap up of the market prospects for 2009.
                                                                      
Follow this link to get the details, but hurry –– last few spots left.



My favorite markets for the second half of the year are Russia, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Vietnam.

Speaking Engagements

Be sure to wear a flower in your hair when you venture west to San Francisco. My colleagues Neil George, Roger Conrad and Elliott Gue will be heading to “The City” Aug. 7-10, 2008, for the San Francisco Money Show.

Neil, Roger and Elliott will discuss infrastructure, partnerships, utilities, resources and energy, and tell you what to buy and what to sell in 2008.

Click here
or call 800-970-4355 and refer to priority code 011470 to attend as our guest.

Also, be sure to check out our blog, At These Levels, for more noteworthy stories. Feel free to post comments and send feedback.

Special Invitation

We have a special invitation for our readers. KCI Communications, Inc., publisher of Growth Engines, is organizing an exciting 11-day investment cruise Dec. 1-12 through the Caribbean and Panama Canal. Participants will have the opportunity to meet and chat with my colleagues Roger Conrad, Gregg Early, Neil George and Elliott Gue.

This will be a unique opportunity to step away from your daily routines, relax in one of the most beautiful parts of the world and share analysts’ knowledge and passion for the markets. During the sail, you’ll not only explore the cerulean splendor of the Caribbean, but you’ll also delve deep into current markets in search of the most profitable opportunities for your portfolios. You’ll also have the rare chance to sail through one of the world’s engineering marvels, the Panama Canal.

It’s always a special treat to meet and talk with subscribers in person, and we couldn’t have picked a better setting than aboard the six-star Crystal Serenity. This is sure to be an especially memorable experience. We hope you’ll join us.

For more information, please click here or call 877-238-1270.